An independent, geotechnical report has confirmed the 2025 New Lambton landslip is the largest residential landslip in Australian history and was the result of a natural disaster following two days of intense rainfall.
The report shows 198mm of rain fell on the night of the landslip and presents evidence the area had moved in 2015 and 2022.
The report has been made public following a peer review by Transport for NSW and NSW Public Works. It concludes that the impacted site, including public and private assets, is unable to be remediated through isolated works, and would require a whole-of-slope intervention.
Work to restore the site to its pre-landslip condition is anticipated to cost in excess of $130 million according to preliminary estimates prepared by third party consultants.
City of Newcastle met with affected landowners on Monday night to outline the findings of the report, which shows the landslip was driven by geological conditions and extreme weather, and not caused by former mining operations or any other action by third parties.
The geotechnical report shows the landslip area remains unstable, is still sensitive to large rainfall events and continues to pose risks to property and infrastructure in and around the danger zone.
“Near neighbours are reporting increasing concern regarding potential expansion of the landslip, damage to their properties, fear of future evacuations, rising insurance premiums and significant reductions in property values,” City of Newcastle CEO Jeremy Bath said.
The geotechnical investigation included 20 boreholes, inclinometers, piezometers, and downhole imaging. The report found the landslide has caused severe and ongoing damage, including:
- The formation of a 2–3m high head scarp that continues to migrate upslope and eastward
- Impacts on multiple properties with 16 properties currently evacuated
- Widespread damage to essential public assets sewer, water, stormwater, power, and telecommunications
- Major deformation and damage to the Baker Street and Victoria Street pavements.
Survey and inclinometer data show:
- Initial surface movements of 0.4–0.8m on 23 May
- Additional surface movements up to 2.1m during July–August rainfall
- Total displacements up to 2.9m near the toe of the landslide
- Ongoing creep of up to 14mm/day.
Russell Road currently lies above and outside the landslide and minimal movement has been recorded or observed along Russell Road.
City of Newcastle will present two reports at Tuesday’s Council Meeting calling for urgent assistance from the NSW Reconstruction Authority (RA).
The first report will ask Councillors to endorse the peer-reviewed geotechnical report and request the RA submit a Category D Disaster Recovery Funding Arrangements application for long-term recovery, enabling solutions to be determined and funded.
The second report calls on the RA to provide urgent financial support for residents who require rental assistance, with insurance-funded temporary accommodation set to end from the start of June 2026.
Mr Bath said City of Newcastle is doing everything it can to help, but long-term recovery is the responsibility of the NSW Reconstruction Authority.
“We will continue to advocate for the impacted families, but the NSW Reconstruction Authority cannot ignore the findings of the independent geotechnical report,” Mr Bath said.
“Councils do not have the financial capacity or legislative authority to deliver the scale of work required to stop the ground from moving beneath the 16 affected homes.
“City of Newcastle is not permitted to fund or undertake private property remediation or land buybacks, except in very limited circumstances prescribed by legislation, which are not met in this case.
“These limitations are well recognised within disaster recovery frameworks and are the reason State and Commonwealth funding mechanisms exist.
“The NSW Reconstruction Authority’s own Landslide Policy recognises that landslides involve prolonged displacement and require specialist coordination and State-level leadership, factors that are clearly present at New Lambton.
“Funding exists specifically to address these circumstances, enabling the State to determine and fund recovery outcomes that are beyond the scope, authority and financial capacity of local government.”
City of Newcastle has already met with representatives of the RA after providing the agency with a copy of the geotechnical report on the Monday of last week and will continue to advocate for financial support for residents.
Once insurance-funded temporary accommodation is no longer available residents will be required to pay to live in temporary rental accommodation while also servicing mortgages on properties they cannot enter, repair, sell or occupy.
“These costs are borne entirely by residents, through no fault of their own, and in circumstances where a return to their homes is not foreseeable,” Mr Bath said.
“We’re working with the 16 impacted households to better understand housing-related costs for the next 12 months to support formal State consideration of collective financial assistance in the vicinity of $750,000.
“Beyond the financial impacts, residents continue to experience psychological stress, trauma and exhaustion, disruption to family routines, and ongoing uncertainty regarding housing security, liability and long-term outcomes.”
City of Newcastle representatives, including Mr Bath, presented at NSW Parliament last week as part of the review of the operations of the NSW RA regarding the East Coast severe weather from May 2025.
At the inquiry, Mr Bath revealed it was not until 30 January this year when the RA finally explained that their reason for not leading the recovery effort was that it considered the impact of the natural disaster on the 16 homes to be rated as low severity. This is despite several of the homes collapsing and none of them considered safe enough for people to ever return without $130 million in engineering works.
City of Newcastle will continue to advocate on behalf of residents and keep them informed, with a further meeting planned for next week where affected landowners can ask questions about what the geotechnical report means for the future of the site.
Effective remediation will require long term monitoring as well as staged implementation and is likely to require a combination of measures including comprehensive surface and subsurface drainage, retaining structures and stabilisation earthworks.
City of Newcastle continues to provide local recovery coordination and community support, taking on significant unbudgeted costs such as site management, monitoring, security and resident engagement, with costs already exceeding $1.3 million.
These are costs that should be borne by the NSW Reconstruction Authority rather than Newcastle ratepayers.