Despite the Treasurer’s spin, today’s 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR) shows that NSW will be far worse off in 40 years’ time without serious and widespread reforms now.
The Treasurer claimed the State’s outlook is better now compared to five years ago when we were in the middle of a global pandemic, while ignoring the serious challenges that are only growing on his watch.
While the Treasurer has put the gloss on today’s report there are eight facts that he doesn’t want the people of NSW to know about the IGR.
1. NSW’s fiscal position is unsustainable
The Treasurer claims that the report shows the long-term fiscal gap has been closed, but the document itself highlights that: “the state’s fiscal position is not on a sustainable path over the long run without changes to existing policy settings.”[1]
2. NSW will pay higher taxes
The report also highlights that taxes will continue to grow faster than our economy in NSW, leaving residents paying more under Labor. The IGR itself says that: “taxation is the only component of revenue that is projected to materially exceed economic growth.”[2]
3. NSW’s population is growing faster than expected
The 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report forecast NSW’s population in 2025 to be 8.413 million[3], but due to the Albanese Labor Government’s record unchecked migration levels, the most recent ABS population data for 31 December 2025 shows that the population in NSW was 8.641 million[4], an increase of 228,000 from projected.
The IGR acknowledges that this has increased housing pressure, noting that: “Post-pandemic, rapid population growth has also outpaced construction.”[5]
Meanwhile, the IGR expects one million people to leave NSW over the next 40 years due to housing unaffordability.[6]
4. More businesses will pay payroll tax
When it comes to payroll taxes the report indicates that it is the Government’s policy to capture more businesses, “this threshold is assumed to remain fixed over the projection period, consistent with current policy, meaning more businesses will exceed the threshold over time[7].”
5. NSW’s productivity rates are falling
In 2021-22 productivity was forecast to grow by 1.2%[8] per year over the next 40 years, but in today’s 2026-27 IGR, NSW’s productivity has been revised down to just 0.8%[9] annual growth, which is concerning when the report itself recognises that: “productivity growth is the primary driver of long-run living standards.”[10]
6. Spending is growing faster than revenue
Expenditure growth is forecast to outstrip revenue growth and provide a fiscal sustainability challenge for NSW.
The report highlights that: “expenditure is projected to grow more quickly than revenue in the long term in the absence of policy change. This will weigh on the NSW Budget’s long-term outlook.”[11]
7. Real gross state product per person is getting worse
While real gross state product (GSP) per person is forecast to grow at 35% over the next 40 years, that’s lower than the 70% growth over the last 40 years.
The previous IGR forecast real GSP to reach $139,000 by 2060-61,[12] while this IGR forecasts it will only reach $131,000 five years later in 2065-66.[13]
8. Debt bomb looming
Over the IGR horizon gross debt is set to hit 89.9% and net debt is set to grow to 83.5% of GSP.[14]
Shadow Treasurer Scott Farlow said that the NSW Government needed to acknowledge that the 2026-27 IGR showed that significant reform needs to be urgently undertaken by the Minns Labor Government.
“The 2026-27 Intergenerational Report is sobering reading for the people of NSW, and it shows that things aren’t as rosy as Treasurer Mookhey would have you believe,” Mr Farlow said.
“Without significant and widespread reform the promise to the next generation of our State is that they won’t be seeing the same opportunities that their parents had and they’ll be paying more state taxes and left to bear an even greater burden of debt.”
“We know the Premier already has his eyes on the exit having declared earlier this year that he ‘won’t be here’ by 2032, and Labor’s lack of a long-term plan for our state’s economy is harming NSW’s future.”
[1] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 6-21
[2] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 6-10
[3] Attachment A, 2021 LGR Model Output, 2025
[4] Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, state and territory population, December 2025
[5] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 3-2
[6] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 2-2.
[7] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 6-12
[8] 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 39
[9] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 1-1
[10] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 2-8
[11] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 6-15
[12] 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 39
[13] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 2-13
[14] 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, Technical note and sensitivity tables, Table 4.2, p.24