Despite the Treasurer\u2019s spin, today\u2019s 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR) shows that NSW will be far worse off in 40 years\u2019 time without serious and widespread reforms now.
The Treasurer claimed the State\u2019s outlook is better now compared to five years ago when we were in the middle of a global pandemic, while ignoring the serious challenges that are only growing on his watch.
While the Treasurer has put the gloss on today\u2019s report there are eight facts that he doesn\u2019t want the people of NSW to know about the IGR.
1. NSW\u2019s fiscal position is unsustainable
The Treasurer claims that the report shows the long-term fiscal gap has been closed, but the document itself highlights that: \u201cthe state\u2019s fiscal position is not on a sustainable path over the long run without changes to existing policy settings.\u201d[1]
2. NSW will pay higher taxes
The report also highlights that taxes will continue to grow faster than our economy in NSW, leaving residents paying more under Labor. The IGR itself says that: \u201ctaxation is the only component of revenue that is projected to materially exceed economic growth.\u201d[2]
3. NSW\u2019s population is growing faster than expected
The 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report forecast NSW\u2019s population in 2025 to be 8.413 million[3], but due to the Albanese Labor Government\u2019s record unchecked migration levels, the most recent ABS population data for 31 December 2025 shows that the population in NSW was 8.641 million[4], an increase of 228,000 from projected.
The IGR acknowledges that this has increased housing pressure, noting that: \u201cPost-pandemic, rapid population growth has also outpaced construction.\u201d[5]
Meanwhile, the IGR expects one million people to leave NSW over the next 40 years due to housing unaffordability.[6]
4. More businesses will pay payroll tax
When it comes to payroll taxes the report indicates that it is the Government\u2019s policy to capture more businesses, \u201cthis threshold is assumed to remain fixed over the projection period, consistent with current policy, meaning more businesses will exceed the threshold over time[7].\u201d
5. NSW\u2019s productivity rates are falling
In 2021-22 productivity was forecast to grow by 1.2%[8] per year over the next 40 years, but in today\u2019s 2026-27 IGR, NSW\u2019s productivity has been revised down to just 0.8%[9] annual growth, which is concerning when the report itself recognises that: \u201cproductivity growth is the primary driver of long-run living standards.\u201d[10]
6. Spending is growing faster than revenue
Expenditure growth is forecast to outstrip revenue growth and provide a fiscal sustainability challenge for NSW.
The report highlights that: \u201cexpenditure is projected to grow more quickly than revenue in the long term in the absence of policy change. This will weigh on the NSW Budget\u2019s long-term outlook.\u201d[11]
7. Real gross state product per person is getting worse
While real gross state product (GSP) per person is forecast to grow at 35% over the next 40 years, that\u2019s lower than the 70% growth over the last 40 years.
The previous IGR forecast real GSP to reach $139,000 by 2060-61,[12] while this IGR forecasts it will only reach $131,000 five years later in 2065-66.[13]
8. Debt bomb looming
Over the IGR horizon gross debt is set to hit 89.9% and net debt is set to grow to 83.5% of GSP.[14]
Shadow Treasurer Scott Farlow said that the NSW Government needed to acknowledge that the 2026-27 IGR showed that significant reform needs to be urgently undertaken by the Minns Labor Government.
\u201cThe 2026-27 Intergenerational Report is sobering reading for the people of NSW, and it shows that things aren\u2019t as rosy as Treasurer Mookhey would have you believe,\u201d Mr Farlow said.
\u201cWithout significant and widespread reform the promise to the next generation of our State is that they won\u2019t be seeing the same opportunities that their parents had and they\u2019ll be paying more state taxes and left to bear an even greater burden of debt.\u201d
\u201cWe know the Premier already has his eyes on the exit having declared earlier this year that he \u2018won\u2019t be here\u2019 by 2032, and Labor\u2019s lack of a long-term plan for our state\u2019s economy is harming NSW\u2019s future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
[1]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 6-21<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[2]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 6-10<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[3]<\/a> Attachment A, 2021 LGR Model Output, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[4]<\/a> Australian Bureau of Statistics, National, state and territory population, December 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[5]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 3-2<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[6]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 2-2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[7]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 6-12<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[8]<\/a> 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 39<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[9]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 1-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[10]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 2-8<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[11]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 6-15<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[12]<\/a> 2021-22 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 39<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[13]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, p. 2-13<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/a>[14]<\/a> 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report, Technical note and sensitivity tables, Table 4.2, p.24<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Despite the Treasurer\u2019s spin, today\u2019s 2026-27 NSW Intergenerational Report (IGR) shows that NSW will be far worse off in 40 years\u2019 time without serious and widespread reforms now. The Treasurer claimed the State\u2019s outlook is better now compared to five years ago when we were in the middle of a global pandemic, while ignoring the serious … Continue reading “Eight things Treasurer Mookhey doesn\u2019t want you to know about the intergenerational report”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-40584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nswnews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=40584"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40584\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":40585,"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/40584\/revisions\/40585"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=40584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=40584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.16news.com.au\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=40584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}