Australia's population to reach 30 million in 11 to 15 years

Based on current trends, Australia’s population is projected to reach 30 million people between 2029 and 2033, according to the latest figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Population projections are based on assumptions of future levels of fertility, life expectancy and migration, which are guided by recent population trends.
Anthony Grubb, Director of Demography at the ABS, said: “The projected time for the nation to grow by 5 million people on current indications will be similar, if not a little shorter, than the 14 years it took to grow from 20 million to 25 million.
“Looking further ahead, based on the medium of our three main projection assumption series, Australia could add a further 10 million to our current 25 million by the year 2043.
“However under our higher range of fertility, mortality and migration assumptions the population would reach 35 million 5 years earlier in 2038. Conversely, under lower assumptions the population would only reach 35 million a decade later in 2053.”
Historical and projected population of Australia
Under all assumptions, the population of New South Wales is projected to remain as the largest state with a population of between approximately 9 and 9.3 million. Victoria is projected to experience the largest and fastest increase in population; possibly reaching between 7 and 8 million by 2027.
Queensland is projected to continue growing over the projection period, increasing to 6 million people in 2027. Western Australia is projected to increase to 3 million by 2027, while South Australia is projected to have slower growth, increasing to 2 million.
The population of the Australian Capital Territory is projected to increase to between 479,000 and 510,000 people closing the gap on Tasmania’s population which is projected to reach between 545,000 and 573,000 people in 2027. The Northern Territory is projected to increase to between 270,000 and 284,000 people in 2027.

 

Projected population, States and territories, at 30 June

Series A (a)
Series B (b)
Series C (c)
2027
2066
2027
2066
2027
2066
‘000
‘000
‘000
‘000
‘000
‘000

New South Wales
9 285
14 796
9 152
13 088
9 022
11 754
Victoria
7 908
14 525
7 694
12 030
7 497
10 091
Queensland
5 931
10 469
5 789
8 718
5 676
7 507
South Australia
1 866
2 437
1 853
2 214
1 838
2 040
Western Australia
2 935
4 926
2 941
4 760
2 928
4 493
Tasmania
573
744
559
581
545
453
Northern Territory
270
386
277
439
284
490
Australian Capital Territory
510
939
495
775
479
612
Australia (d)
29 284
49 226
28 766
42 608
28 274
37 444

(a) Higher assumptions of fertility, life expectancy, overseas and interstate migration flows.
(b) Medium assumptions of fertility, life expectancy, overseas and interstate migration flows.
(c) Lower assumptions of fertility, overseas and interstate migration flows, and a medium assumption of life expectancy.
(d) Includes Other Territories.
Selected population milestones, Australia, Series A, B and C

Population Milestone
Series A (a)
Series B (b)
Series C (c)

30 Million
2028/29
2030/31
2032/33
35 Million
2038/39
2043/44
2053/54
40 Million
2048/49
2058/59
. .
45 Million
2058/59
. .
. .

(a) Higher assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and overseas migration flows.
(b) Medium assumptions of fertility, life expectancy and overseas migration flows.
(c) Lower assumptions of fertility and overseas migration flows, and a medium assumption of life expectancy.

Further information is available in Population Projections, Australia, 2017 (base) to 2066 (cat. no. 3222.0) available for free download from the ABS website.

ACCC not satisfied with proposed OxoPak marks

The ACCC is proposing to reject an application for four certification trademarks for certain biodegradable plastics by OxoPak Pty Ltd.
OxoPak is seeking to register the marks as part of its certification scheme for plastic bags and other packaging materials that meet certain specified standards of oxo-biodegradability.
The ACCC has concerns that the marks may give consumers the impression that the plastic product complies with certification standards relating to food safety, marine life safety, environmental sustainability and waste reduction.
“We accept that in the right conditions oxo-biodegradable plastics can break down faster than other plastics, but our initial assessment is that these trademarks make representations that go beyond this and may mislead consumers,” ACCC Deputy Chair Mick Keogh said.
”The OxoPak marks may give consumers the impression that certified plastic products meet particular food safety standards, or have no harmful impact on marine life and the environment, but these factors are not assessed as part of the certification process, which only deals with oxo-biodegradability.”
“Businesses applying for approval of certification trademarks must ensure that the certification standards are consistent with what the marks indicate to consumers,” Mr Keogh said.
“Businesses should also ensure that the marks are not misleading, confusing or ambiguous.”
The ACCC invites further comments and submissions before it will proceed to a final assessment of the applications in early 2019.
Background
The certification trademarks are illustrated below.

OxoPak certification trademarks

OxoPak states that its proposed certification trademarks are intended to indicate that the product bearing the marks meets ‘higher standards of degradability, biodegradability, and eco-toxicity than other products within the same product category’.
The ACCC has a role in assessing and approving rules for the use of a CTM. As part of its assessment, the ACCC examines the rules to ensure they are not to the detriment of the public, or likely to raise any concerns relating to competition, unconscionable conduct, unfair practices, product safety and/or product information.
The ACCC conducted a public consultation of the marks to inform its initial assessment. The ACCC received submissions from OxoPak, Planet Ark and the Australian Packaging Covenant Organisation, Plastic Free July Foundation, Australian Bioplastics Association Incorporated, and Good Environmental Choice Australia.
All submissions received are available on the ACCC’s online consultation hub. The proposed certification trademark rules, and a copy of the ACCC’s initial assessment are also available via the consultation hub.
Interested persons have one month from the time the ACCC’s initial assessment is published by IP Australia to provide written or oral submissions, or seek a formal conference, before the ACCC makes its final assessment.

AIR FORCE HELPS YOUNG WOMEN SOAR

Minister for Defence, the Hon Christopher Pyne MP, and Minister for Defence Industry, the Hon Steven Ciobo MP, today welcomed the opening of the inaugural AIR4 event which aims to encourage young women to see the value in pursuing science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) studies.

More than 1,400 female students and 80 teachers participated in various interactive activities at Melbourne’s iconic Luna Park, including learning about driverless cars and experiencing HoloLens firsthand.
Minister Pyne said the interactive activities offered students the opportunity to have fun with rides and attractions while exploring the possibilities of STEM-related fields.
“Women represent only 16 per cent of STEM graduates across Australia. In order for Defence, and indeed the country, to get the very best capability, we need to have greater female participation in STEM subjects,” Minister Pyne said.
“We may have the next aerospace inventor, satellite engineer, or a future fast jet pilot at the AIR4 event. For these girls, we see their future as limitless, and we would like them to see it that way too.”
Minister Ciobo said activities like AIR4 offered students the opportunity to better understand how STEM subjects can be applicable across all professions and industries.
“It’s great the students got to engage in exhibitions such as the Augmented and Virtual Reality, where participants could fly or watch a pre-recorded flight, wear protective equipment and helmets used by Defence personnel every day and test new wireless sensing systems,” Minister Ciobo said.
Students also had the opportunity to attend a special screening at St Kilda’s Palais Theatre, of Jasper, a cutting-edge animation made in partnership with the Royal Australian Air Force and the University of Technology Sydney.
Jasper was made to spark interest in aviation and developed using both traditional techniques and new technologies such as robotics and 3D printing.
The film was recently awarded Gold at the prestigious 2018 Animation Effect Awards and Festival. Jasper’s character is based on Squadron Leader Jacqueline Killian, who voiced the main character and will share her personal story and career achievements at the event.
To watch the Jasper animation, visit: www.airforce.gov.au/ 
More information on AIR4 is available at: www.air4.com.au/ 
DST is a proud sponsor of the AIR4 initiative.

SUPPORTING AUSTRALIA’S ENERGY WORKFORCE

A Shorten Labor Government will support local workers as Australia’s energy mix changes, helping them to plan for the future and take advantage of the tens of thousands of jobs available in renewable energy.
Coal will continue to be part of our energy mix into the future, and coal mining will continue to be an important industry for the Australian economy.
A number of ageing coal-fired power stations will reach the end of their technical life in the coming years – 75 per cent of coal-fired power stations are already operating beyond their original design life.
It’s impossible for ageing coal-fired power stations to stay open forever. And it’s irresponsible to pretend otherwise. Australia must have a plan to help workers and communities respond to future closures.
Labor will implement a long-term plan to ensure workers are supported and are first in line for new job opportunities.
Labor will:

  1. Train workers in the skills they need – Labor will commit $10 million to a Clean Energy Training Fund to train workers in clean energy industries, from solar and battery installers, to energy management system professionals. Labor will work with TAFEs, RTOs, unions, and industry, to make sure workers have the skills they need to benefit from Labor’s Plan for More Renewables and Cheaper Power.
  1. Ensure any closures are managed to minimise community impacts – Labor will establish an independent Just Transition Authority to help plan for and coordinate the response to the eventual closure of coal-fired power stations in the future. The Authority will oversee pooled redundancy schemes and economic diversification plans in impacted regions. Labor will also require all large generators to provide at least three years notice of closure. The Authority will have a cost of $8.5 million over the forward estimates.
  1. Make sure displaced workers are first in line for new jobs – Labor will make it mandatory for power stations and coal mines to participate in pooled redundancy schemes – to help ensure every worker impacted by a closure is provided an offer of employment at a nearby power station or coal mine, subject to enough positions being created.
  1. Take a proactive approach to economic diversification for impacted regions and communities, guided by the work of the Just Transition Authority. The size and detail of the policies will be developed in government and tailored to individual regions’ characteristics.

It is critical that the long term planning and coordination work is undertaken as soon as possible – to provide new economic opportunities for impacted workers and communities. That’s why Labor will get started on our plan as soon as we are elected.
In contrast, the Liberals have consistently failed to provide support for workers and communities impacted by economic transition – the communities of Hazelwood and Northern power station workers were supported by state Labor Governments after plant closures but ignored by the Federal Liberal Government.
Renewables are good for power prices and good for the environment, but they are also good for jobs and the economy.
Modelling released by the Australia Institute estimates that Labor’s Plan for More Renewable Energy and Cheaper Power will generate up to 70,000 jobs by 2030. Labor will work to ensure that these are well-paid, secure jobs.
Labor’s plan will ensure communities impacted by inevitable coal-fired power station closures aren’t left behind in this transition. Unlike the Liberals who have a track record of abandoning communities when a coal-fired power station closes, Labor will support local workers and build stronger local economies when they are needed most.
Fact sheet: Labor’s Plan for a Just Transition

LABOR’S PLAN FOR MORE RENEWABLE ENERGY AND CHEAPER POWER

A Shorten Labor Government will drive new investment in renewable energy generation and storage and transform Australia’s energy supply systems – delivering more renewables and cheaper power for all Australians.
Our Plan for More Renewable Energy and Cheaper Power includes a ten-year energy investment framework that delivers certainty for industry, lower power prices and more reliability.
Labor’s preference is to achieve a bi-partisan agreement on energy policy. But Scott Morrison and the Liberals are too divided and too out of touch to agree on an energy policy that can lower prices, boost renewables and address climate change.
Labor will continue to pursue a bipartisan market mechanism, such as a National Energy Guarantee, that could deliver on our commitment of 50 per cent renewable energy by 2030.
Labor is prepared to work with the Liberals, but we will not wait for them.
1. A Shorten Labor Government will double the original investment in the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. 
Labor will provide an additional $10 billion in capital for the CEFC over five years from 2019-20. This will be used to:

  • Support large-scale generation and storage projects, including solar and wind farms;
  • Support Labor’s Household Battery Program by providing concessional loans for the purchase of solar and battery systems;
  • Boost investment in energy efficiency projects, commercial and community renewable energy projects, and industrial transformation.

Labor created the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and it has been a huge success – leveraging $19 billion of investments in clean energy projects so far.
This policy will deliver a modest improvement to the underlying cash balance over the forward estimates.
.
2. A Shorten Labor Government will create an independent Energy Security and Modernisation Fund. 
Labor will provide $5 billion in capital to future-proof our energy network – building and upgrading Australia’s energy transmission and distribution systems.
Using the Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated Systems Plan as our blueprint, Labor will facilitate investment in:

  • Upgrades to existing interconnectors, and building new interconnectors to lower prices and improve system stability;
  • New gas pipelines, upgrades and extensions to unlock new gas supplies and improve transportation to businesses and households;
  • Transmission links to Renewable Energy Zones to access new renewables projects across the country.

The Energy Security and Modernisation Fund will help manage the transition to more renewables in our energy system – ensuring households and businesses have the energy supply they need when they need it, at affordable prices.
This policy will deliver a modest improvement to the underlying cash balance over the forward estimates.
3. A Shorten Labor Government will implement a new Energy Productivity Agenda.  
Five years of the Liberals has seen Australia’s energy efficiency performance deteriorate, with the International Energy Agency now ranking Australia last out of developed countries in energy efficiency policy and performance. This drives up costs for businesses and households, and undermines jobs.
Labor will implement a suite of measures to help Australian businesses improve their energy efficiency and cut their power bills.
We will:

  • Provide one thousand grants of up to $20,000 to Australian manufacturers to help them reduce their energy usage – for example, through energy management systems and data gathering and analysis;
  • Allow ARENA to support a broader range of energy efficiency projects, not just projects with  renewable energy involvement;
  • Develop new training programs for energy managers and consultants, and an accreditation system for energy auditors;
  • Improve state and territory energy efficiency initiatives through COAG.

Labor will commit $31 million over the forward estimates to deliver these measures.
Labor’s Plan for More Renewable Energy and Cheaper Power will be good for households, good for the economy and good for the environment.
It will help deliver 50 per cent of power from renewables by 2030, keep power prices lower, and create tens of thousands of jobs in the renewables industry.
Only Labor will deliver cheaper power bills, more renewables and more jobs for Australians.
Fact sheets:
Clean Energy Finance Corporation
Energy Security and Modernisation Fund
Labor’s Energy Productivity Agenda

BATTERY BOOST FOR HOUSEHOLDS TO SLASH POWER BILLS

A Shorten Labor Government will help Australians slash their power bills by setting a new national target of one million household battery installations by 2025.
From 2020, Labor’s Household Battery Program will provide a $2,000 rebate for 100,000 households on incomes of less than $180,000 per year to purchase and install battery systems, as well as low-cost loans for households.
This would triple the number of battery systems in Australian households compared to today’s numbers. The massive boost will also help manufacturers scale up production and reduce their costs, in order reach the goal of one million households with battery systems by 2025.
The Smart Energy Council estimates that new household solar and batteries would allow most homes to save more than 60 per cent off their power bills.
Australians love renewable energy because they know it saves them money and it’s good for the environment. Household solar installation has sky-rocketed from 7,000 homes in 2007 to 1.8 million homes today.
Supporting the installation of more household battery systems is the next big step in helping families keep their energy bills lower. When the sun goes down, or when electricity usage is at its peak, consumers can draw on their own stored energy.
This is good for consumers – giving them more control over their power bills, as well as lowering power prices and improving reliability for all Australians by reducing demand on the electricity grid in peak times.
And it’s good for the environment – cheaper and cleaner electricity for Aussie households will help Australia achieve 50 per cent of power from renewables by 2030.
Labor’s battery installation rebate for 100,000 households has been costed by the independent Parliamentary Budget Office to have a budget cost of $140.9 million over the forward estimates and $201.3 million over four years to 2022-23.
A Shorten Labor Government will also invest in a Neighbourhood Renewables Program so that renters and social housing residents can also benefit from cheaper and cleaner renewable energy
We will establish community power hubs to support the development of renewables projects in local communities – such as solar gardens on apartment rooftops, community wind farms, energy efficiency upgrades for social housing, and grants for community groups to pilot new projects.
Labor’s Neighbourhood Renewables Program has a capped budget cost of $75 million over the forward estimates and $100 million over four years to 2022-23.
These new initiatives to cut power bills for Australian households build on our existing commitments to crack down on price gouging by power companies by overhauling electricity deals, abolishing expensive outdated energy plans, and introducing a capped offer for consumers.
Australia is in an energy crisis under the Liberals. Electricity prices have increased by nearly 19 per cent over the past three years – three times faster than wages growth.
The Liberals haven’t been able to agree a policy amongst themselves, and aren’t up to leading the country in the right direction.
Labor’s Plan for More Renewable Energy and Cheaper Power will be good for households, good for the economy and good for the environment.
It will help deliver 50 per cent of power from renewables by 2030, keep power prices lower, and create tens of thousands of jobs in the renewables industry.
Only Labor will deliver cheaper power bills, more renewables and more jobs for Australians.
Fact sheets:
Household Batteries Program
Neighbourhood Renewables Program

Dutton and Morrison’s latest attack on the rule of law

Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton’s plans to leave people stateless is yet another attack on the rule of law and people’s fundamental rights, Greens Justice spokesperson Nick McKim says.
“This is another dangerous step down the road to a police state. It undermines the rule of law and the presumption of innocence,” Senator McKim said.
“Leaving people stateless was even a step too far for Tony Abbott. It is a disgrace that this government could even consider such a move.”
“Dutton has repeatedly shown he cannot be trusted with the massive powers he already has.”
“I urge Labor to stand with the Greens and vote down this draconian legislation.”

Daniel Andrews acknowledged need to protect highest conservation value forest, allowed it to be logged anyway, Senate Inquiry into animal extinction crisis hears

The Senate Inquiry into Australia’s animal extinction crisis today heard testimony that Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews acknowledged the need to protect the highest conservation value forests, but buckled under pressure from VicForests, the state-owned logging company, to allow these forest areas to be logged.
Premier Andrews set up a Taskforce as an election promise in 2014, that was made up of environmentalists, industry and unions. The Taskforce’s Statement of Intent noted the “current ‘business-as-usual’ response to the many complex issues facing Victoria’s forests is insufficient, and that to continue in this way will be of detriment to all stakeholders and the broader community.”
“Premier Andrews was in a bind – despite knowing these areas of forests needed to be protected, VicForests had over-logged other forests and could therefore not fulfil future contracts. Daniel Andrews buckled under pressure from VicForests and industry, turned his back on the Taskforce and sold out these incredibly important forests and the threatened animals that live in them,” said Sarah Rees of MyEnvironment Inc and member of the Taskforce.
“It’s staggering that after acknowledging the importance of protecting these forests of highest conservation value, Premier Daniel Andrews is now allowing logging in these areas,” said Senator Janet Rice, Australian Greens forest spokesperson and Chair of the Senate inquiry into Australia’s extinction crisis.
“Daniel Andrews needs to come clean with Victorians before Saturday’s election about how he has shafted the environment to save his political skin after VicForests over-logged our forests.”
“In the meantime we have a serious extinction crisis on our doorstep, with animals like the Leadbeater’s Possum on the brink of extinction because their homes are being logged overwhelmingly for woodchips. It’s just madness.”
“Currently, 88% of Victoria’s timber comes from plantations. If we ended native forest logging and shifted to 100% plantation-sourced wood products, we’d not only protect what’s left of our precious forests and the endangered animals that rely on them, we’d give regional communities and workers a long-term future.”
“A vote for the Greens is a vote for the Great Forest National Park now and for many generations to come. A vote for Labor and Liberal is a vote for ongoing destruction.”
“Logging and woodchipping are driving threatened species such as koalas, the Leadbeater’s possum, the greater glider and the swift parrot to extinction, all under the auspices of Regional Forest Agreements that exempt logging from national environment laws,” said Wilderness Society Victorian Campaign Manager Amelia Young.
“Australia is in the grips of an extinction epidemic. We have the worst mammal extinction rate on the planet and it’s only getting worse. We are also the second worst in the world for biodiversity loss, only beaten by Indonesia. We need new national environment laws that actually protect nature and an independent watchdog, an Environmental Protection Authority, to enforce the laws.”

Fully Funded Public Schools: Australian Greens Launch Package for Public Education

The Australian Greens have announced plans for a huge investment in public schools, committing an additional $4.6 billion for public schools over the next four years and $20.5 billion over the next ten years. Under this plan, all public schools would reach 100% of their Schooling Resource Standard by 2023. This will ensure every public school in Australia has the funding to meet the educational needs of their students, no matter their postcode or their parents’ bank balance.

In addition to this, the Greens will increase funding to the existing Capital Grants Program to $400 million a year to improve infrastructure in all schools. This fund will include public schools, which are currently excluded, and guarantee 80% of the fund, $320 million a year, for public schools only.

The Australian Greens Education Spokesperson, Senator Mehreen Faruqi, said:

“The Greens are proudly the party of public education. We are unapologetic in our advocacy for a well-resourced, world class public education system.

“For too long, public schools have had to wait at the back of the queue while Government’s pander to already overfunded private schools. The Greens will ensure that, for the first time, every public school is fully funded.

“There are more than 2.5 million students going to public schools who deserve the best possible education we can offer them. We have to step up and invest in their future.

“We know education is life changing. All public school students should have the funding for a world class education.

“If we continue on the current trajectory, almost nine in ten public schools won’t be funded to meet the basic needs of their students. This is a national shame.

“Ninety-three percent of public school teachers dip into their own pocket to buy stationery and classroom equipment, and nearly half buy library resources and textbooks to make up for the lack of Government funding. It doesn’t have to be this way.

“A world class education can only happen in quality and comfortable learning environments for students and teachers. At the moment, public school students continue to sweat it out in demountable classrooms with no air conditioning, while some private schools build orchestra pits and their second swimming pool. We will ensure $320 million a year goes to disadvantaged and needy public schools to assist in upgrading and building infrastructure,” she concluded.

Detail

The Greens policy will see the Commonwealth Government make a guaranteed 25% contribution to each school’s Schooling Resource Standard (SRS), the minimum amount of funding needed to provide a quality education. This will amount to $20.5 billion over ten years.

Our Plan: Additional Commonwealth Recurrent Funding for public schools 

State Total Forward Estimates ($m) Total Ten Years ($m)
NSW $1,436 $6,450
Queensland $1,007 $4,523
ACT $65 $291
Victoria $1,057 $4,749
Tasmania $110 $493
South Australia $320 $1,438
Western Australia $499 $2,239
Northern Territory $60 $334
TOTAL $4,554 $20,517

The current Liberal Government has restricted Federal funding to 20% of the SRS for public schools. Under Labor’s recent announcement, the Commonwealth will provide 22.2%. The Greens plan to provide 25% of SRS is the only plan that will make sure public schools reach 100% of their SRS.

We will fund our package by reversing the Coalition’s income tax cuts that disproportionately benefit high income earners, raising $13.4 billion over the next four years alone.

Read our full plan

Labor's timid energy plan continues to protect coal from carbon price: Bandt

Greens climate change and energy spokesperson Adam Bandt MP said Labor’s energy policy announced today fails to tackle coal and is another capitulation to Tony Abbott by dumping a carbon price in favour of a policy scavenged from the Liberals’ rubbish bin.

Mr Bandt said the policy also fails to act on climate change by doing little more than business-as-usual, failing the test set by the recent IPCC report on global warming. There is no policy to ensure a planned phase out of coal fired power plants.

“Labor is still scared of Tony Abbott and has run up the white flag on a carbon price, joining the Coalition’s protection racket for coal,” said Mr Bandt.

“Labor has given up on having a law to cut pollution.”

“Labor’s timid energy plan is a polluter’s dream and will keep coal in the system for decades, much longer than the world’s scientists are saying is needed to avoid climate breakdown.”

“Scavenging a policy from the Liberals’ rubbish bin is not good enough.”

“As a climate policy, this will do nothing to stop the planet burning.”

“Labor is letting coal off the hook while offering little more than business as usual for renewables. Experts predict we’ll get to 41% renewables by 2030 anyway, so Labor is really only proposing an extra 9% renewables over 11 years.”

“Subsidising battery storage and underwriting renewables, policies pinched from the Greens, are good ideas but not enough. Australia needs a proper economy-wide plan underpinned by a carbon price.”

“By copying the Liberals and dragging their economy wide target into the electricity sector, Labor is also expecting the rest of the economy to do much more, something they criticised the Coalition for doing only a few weeks ago. The transport sector and farmers shouldn’t bear the burden of Labor’s failure to stand up to the coal polluters.”

The IPCC recently reported that the world would need to close two-thirds of its coal-fired power stations by 2030 to avoid a dangerous 1.5 degrees of global warming.