Gerard and Anne – thank you for hosting me today at the Sydney Institute.
And it’s great to have the Sydney Institute’s Chair, Jacquelynne, and Board Members, Mike and George, with us today.
A special acknowledgement to Peter Costello – one of Australia’s finest Treasurers.
Thank you to all my colleagues here today.
And to everyone here, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your time.
INTRODUCTION
Australia is in an economic crisis.
This might not be immediately obvious – as in prior economic crises like the GFC and pandemic.
But the crisis is unmistakable when you consider our living standards.
At a time when living standards should be rising, they’ve fallen catastrophically – worse than anywhere in the developed world.
What truly distinguishes this crisis is that, rather than government acting to protect Australians from harm, this government is the primary cause of harm.
Today’s economic crisis is of the Albanese Government’s making.
It’s a tragedy for Australians suffering through it.
And it’s a stain on this Labor Government that should disqualify it from re-election.
As someone who has worked my entire life nurturing enterprise and turning economic hardship into success, what this government is doing to our nation breaks my heart.
It doesn’t need to be like this.
Australia should be thriving – not failing.
And our current decline only steels my resolve to do what’s needed to save Australia.
The central message of my speech today is this:
Only the Coalition has the strong plan and direction, strong team, and strong leadership to save Australia – to turn tough times into better times.
We’ve done it before.
We will do it again.
We will protect our way of life.
We will restore our standard of living.
AN ECONOMIC CRISIS OF THE ALBANESE GOVERNMENT’S MAKING
The greatest myth perpetuated by Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers is that they’re victims of circumstance.
After four years in government and eight budget updates, their refusal to take responsibility has worn thin.
Jim Chalmers frequently tells a revealing lie.
The Treasurer takes credit for having brought government spending as a share of GDP down from over a third to around a quarter.
The only problem is this happened before he even took office.
I won’t rehash our pandemic experience at length.
No one wants to relive that period.
But a point must be made:
Faced with the greatest economic shock since the Great Depression, the Coalition intervened to save businesses and jobs – even though it grated against our economic instincts.
The economic interventions were intended to be targeted and temporary – so the deficits unwound rapidly as the crisis passed.
Of course, there was relentless pressure from Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers to spend $81 billion more – to keep the money flowing for longer.
And the claim that government spending grew permanently is debunked by the numbers.
In the financial year after the borders reopened, government spending had, in fact, fallen to 24.3 percent of GDP – lower than before the pandemic.
So emergency levels of government spending receded quickly.
Unwittingly, though, the Coalition had laid the fertile eggs from which Labor’s Leviathan would hatch.
Many Australians became reliant on government during the pandemic – understandably.
But that dependency fed a mistaken expectation that government could be the solution to every problem.
And that expectation was seized upon by Anthony Albanese.
Anthony Albanese inherited a government that was smaller than before the pandemic – one as small as in the mid-2000s.
But in just two years, he grew government to its largest in 40 years, outside the pandemic.
And in each of the two subsequent years, he has grown it even larger.
Big government is at the root of all of our problems.
Problems that will not be solved without addressing their root cause.
LABOR’S ECONOMIC DEATH LOOP
Since coming to power, the Albanese Government has initiated a radical restructuring of Australian society:
Away from free enterprise and towards a command-and-control system.
Labor’s agenda does not serve our national interest.
It’s a political program to centralise and consolidate power.
Power that Labor wields to serve constituencies that further entrench its power.
The NDIS now costs taxpayers $3,000 a year on average.
But billions in waste and fraud have created a powerful constituency that protects the status quo.
Under Labor, the “care economy” workforce has exploded.
At one point it was responsible for 80 per cent of new hours worked despite accounting for just 30 per cent of pre-existing hours.
Segments of this disproportionately unionised workforce have been awarded hefty pay increases by Labor’s Fair Work Commission.
Which Labor has then backed with billions in additional taxpayer funds.
Naturally, Australians expect and deserve the highest-quality services.
The workers providing those services expect and deserve to be well paid.
No reasonable person could deny this.
But even Labor, in its belated commitment to reign in the NDIS, has admitted the trajectory is unsustainable.
The Coalition has highlighted the unsustainability of the NDIS for many years, noting it will ultimately be to the detriment of those who need it most.
And the Treasury Secretary belled the cat recently when she said, “revenue needs to be raised from somewhere.”
Labor expands government, which slows the economy, reducing revenue.
So it levies new taxes on investment, saving, and aspiration.
And this slows the economy further, reducing revenue further still.
Which taxes will Labor raise next?
Labor has put our economy into a death loop.
A problem arises.
Government steps in, gets bigger, and spends big.
Spending fuels inflation.
Prices rise, household budgets shrink, and costs for businesses go up.
Confidence erodes and investment falls.
Government needs to spend more to deal with the problems it has created.
It raises taxes on Australians today.
Meanwhile, debt gets bigger for Australians tomorrow.
And around and around the death loop we go.
But here’s the thing:
Despite all the spending and intervention – despite bigger government and more bureaucracy – our problems have not been solved.
Rather, things are even worse than when we started.
Ronald Reagan spoke about what he considered to be the nine most terrifying words in the English language.
I think there’s ten:
“I’m from the Albanese Government, and I’m here to help.”
BIGGER GOVERNMENT IS MAKING AUSTRALIANS POORER
Make no mistake:
This big government agenda has been devastating for Australians’ living standards.
Coalition analysis of the National Accounts and Labour Account paints a stark picture.
As inflation raged as the pandemic came to an end, productivity collapsed across sectors of the economy – down nearly 5 per cent across the board from when Labor was elected.
But from 2023, a sharp divergence grew.
Productivity in the non-mining market sector – what most people think of as the private sector – has risen by a sluggish but still positive 3 per cent.
Meanwhile, productivity in the non-market sector – which includes the public sector and public services provided by the private sector – has collapsed by a further 5 per cent.
That has taken the total decline in non-market productivity to almost 10 per cent since the Coalition left office.
This is unprecedented.
It’s an entirely new development confined to the last three years.
It alone explains why productivity – and therefore living standards – haven’t recovered at all in those three years.
And it’s no accident.
It’s the direct consequence of Labor’s economic agenda.
In an attempt to excuse his appalling productivity performance, the Treasurer often points to weak productivity growth abroad.
But this is a uniquely Australian phenomenon.
For instance, while productivity in Australia has fallen by almost 5 per cent under Labor, productivity in New Zealand has risen by almost 2 per cent in that same time.
The difference is that only in Australia did government explode.
Productivity can be an abstract concept.
But at its core it is about getting more for doing less.
Who can argue with having more of that?
And its consequences are very real.
Labor’s big government, anti-productivity agenda has been disastrous for the lives of everyday Australians.
It’s why, in each of the last two financial years, Australia recorded its slowest economic growth outside of recession on record.
The collapse in productivity has lowered the economy’s speed limit, which means it can’t grow without the RBA intervening to raise rates to contain inflation.
It’s why real wages are down almost 3 per cent.
It’s why real disposable incomes are down almost 5 per cent.
It’s why Australia has experienced the sharpest fall in living standards in the developed world.
Australians are feeling poorer under Labor because they are poorer under Labor.
And Labor’s big government agenda is to blame.
OPTION ONE – DOUBLE DOWN ON A FAILED STRATEGY
Ladies and gentlemen:
Facing these challenges, Australians have three distinct options for our country’s economic trajectory.
The first is no change – no end to the economic crisis we’re in.
More Labor government means more of the same.
More spending. More inflation. More cost-of-living pressures. More taxes. More debt.
Lower living standards. Lower real wages. Lower immigration standards. Higher immigration numbers.
Fewer homes. Higher energy prices. More business closures. A future made abroad.
This is a government that believes in wealth redistribution – not wealth creation.
A government that attacks aspiration – instead of nurturing aspiration.
A government that wants dependent citizens – not empowered citizens.
A government that resents success – instead of celebrating success.
A dangerous and deluded Labor Party has resigned itself to managing decline.
Labor wants Australians to lower their expectations – to accept mediocrity.
I believe we’re better than that.
I don’t accept that decline is inevitable.
And I don’t believe Australians do either.
OPTION TWO – BLOW UP THE JOINT
Australians want change.
The choice then is, what type of change?
Australians have every right to feel frustrated.
They have played by the rules.
They have done everything right.
But our economy is not delivering for them.
The future people envisioned for themselves and their children isn’t panning out.
Many have lost hope.
They look left at a government that lies to them.
They look right at an opposition that has too many times let them down.
I understand why some Australians think the way out is to blow the place up.
But to those who feel like lighting a match, believe me when I say, that a moment of satisfaction isn’t worth the eternity of pain that will follow.
One Nation claims to offer a way out of our national malaise.
In reality, they would only make things worse.
If you’re considering supporting One Nation, there are at least three reasons to think again.
First, One Nation is a column of smoke.
Long on rhetoric but short on substance, One Nation’s offering is a random grab bag of poorly defined, contradictory, and constantly changing positions that leave no clear sense of who they are or what they stand for.
Their longest serving MP thinks the United States is the “world’s greatest terrorist organisation”, and their newest MP is already voting with the Greens and Teals.
If you want to vote for a party because it’s clear what they stand for, One Nation isn’t it.
Second, One Nation does not have the team needed to meet the challenges Australia faces.
Australia is in the grip of an economic crisis.
Fixing it is the single most important job of the next government.
It will require a team effort – it is beyond any one person.
Look at One Nation’s team.
In the end it is a one person show.
Third, One Nation would send us broke.
The root cause of our economic crisis is an explosion in government.
And One Nation’s solution is to double down.
Deep down, their true instincts are toward big government interventionism.
But with even less of a concern than Labor about how to make the numbers add up.
Their top four financial commitments alone could cost the Budget in the order of a trillion dollars over a decade.
And they have no clear or credible plan for how they’d pay for these commitments.
One Nation’s promise to abolish parts of the bureaucracy would cover perhaps just one-fifteenth of these commitments.
Of course, it’s easy to make promises when you aren’t a party of government.
One Nation is a lot like The Greens in that regard.
If they found their way into government, they’d learn the lesson the hard way.
World history is littered with failed governments that didn’t bother paying for their promises.
And it’s their citizens who ultimately suffered the consequences.
If unfunded, these promises would generate a surge in inflation requiring the RBA to raise interest rates by around 3 percentage points to neutralise their effect.
That would add around $20,000 a year in interest to the average new mortgage.
And that’s on top of the $30,000 a year Labor has already lumped mortgages holders with.
Our national debt, already nearing $1 trillion, would be on track to nearly triple.
Rising rates would then create a compounding feedback loop.
Down that road lies a sovereign debt crisis.
Their only alternative is deeper cuts to essential services — pensions and Medicare chief among them
That’s why I warn that an eternity of pain would follow a One Nation government.
You will not fix our nation’s problems by blowing up the joint.
OPTION THREE – SELF-DETERMINATION AND ENTERPRISE LED BY A TEAM THAT HAS LIVED IT
Australia needs change.
But not destructive change.
We need constructive change.
Change that turns tough times into better times.
That can only come from a strong plan built on self-determination and enterprise by a team that has lived it.
As damaging as it will be to our nation, the recent federal Budget has served one useful purpose.
It has left Australians in no doubt as to Labor’s socialist vision for our country.
After four years, the mask has finally slipped.
I believe Labor’s Budget will ultimately be its downfall.
Because it has revealed that they don’t understand the Australian people.
That’s why the backlash has been extraordinary.
It’s why the Australian people are resisting it.
We stand with them.
And we will not stop fighting for them.
In my Budget Reply, I laid out a very different vision for Australia.
A vision that reflects how Australians see themselves and their nation.
A vision that is ambitious and empowering.
A vision of self-determination and enterprise.
A vision I have been forming throughout my life.
Soon after leaving school in 1984, I started a job taking out horse treks in the Snowies after many years of riding through the mountains with family and friends.
I saw first-hand the gradual creep of control over the land and the horses by the National Parks bureaucracy – taking power away from the local community.
This included prohibition of horse riding through large parts of the park, …
… bans on management of the brumbies, …
… botched maintenance of fire trails, …
… and failures to conduct sufficient hazard reduction after cattle were removed from the park.
Consider the explosion in brumby numbers, …
… the catastrophic 2003 fires which led to the loss of irreplaceable heritage, …
… the explosion in pig numbers.
All resulted from those failures.
As Hayek wrote some 81 years ago:
“If we can agree that the economic problem of society is mainly one of rapid adaptation to changes in the particular circumstances of time and place… the ultimate decisions must be left to the people who are familiar with these circumstances, who know directly of the relevant changes and of the resources immediately available to meet them.”
Of course, stifling bureaucracies don’t just exist in government.
My first major project out of university was at the Port Kembla steelworks, which was struggling and needed serious improvement if it was to be a sustainable business.
We worked with frontline teams to drive improvements – with the ideas, the plans, and the execution driven by workers at the front line, not bureaucrats from the centre.
One of the key areas of production was the slab caster – central to the operation of the mill –where performance had been poor.
The frontline workers knew how to fix it.
They just needed to be empowered.
Once given the authority, they drove remarkable improvements that were central to increasing production, profitability, and ultimately the sustainability of the business.
It taught me early on that the front line in any business knows the most about the operations of the business.
And if they have the freedom and motivation, they can deliver extraordinary outcomes.
I saw it over and over – in countless businesses throughout my two-decade career prior to entering parliament in 2013.
And it’s just as true for the citizenry of a nation as it is for the employees of a steelworks.
You need to listen to the people.
Give them what they need to succeed.
And then get the hell out of their way.
Our path back to prosperity will be built on self-determination and enterprise.
This is what we believe.
This is what we stand for.
This is what our plan will achieve.
THE COALITION’S PLAN TO RE-EMPOWER AUSTRALIANS
Our plan is built on lower taxes, lower immigration, lower regulation, and lower energy costs.
That’s what’s needed to re-empower Australians.
The explosion in government under Labor has been underpinned by record revenue windfalls from bracket creep and commodity prices.
We will take away that cookie jar.
Our Tax Back Guarantee will index the income tax thresholds to inflation – so income taxes no longer rise automatically with inflation.
This will be the most significant income tax reform in 40 years.
It will deliver bigger and bigger income tax cuts year after year:
$250 in the first year.
$500 in the second.
$750, $1,000, $1,250, and so on.
And more if inflation is higher.
Our tax cuts will rise every year because the higher taxes Labor plans to take from hardworking Australians will rise every year.
We will not let that happen.
Our Future Generations Fund commits to lock away 80 per cent of commodity revenue windfalls.
That will be used to pay down debt and fund productive, nation-building infrastructure.
Labor has blown the largest commodity revenue windfall in Australian history.
And we will never let that happen again.
Together, our Tax Back Guarantee and Future Generations Fund serve as a commitment that, if elected, we will live within our means – just as Australians must.
For small business, we’ll deliver a $50,000 instant asset write-off, cutting their taxes and encouraging them to invest in growing their business.
Just what we need to restore productivity and living standards.
And by committing to repeal Labor’s toxic taxes, we’re committing to deliver significant tax relief to millions of Australian small businesses.
As well as to those who save and to those who invest in our housing supply.
On Jim Chalmers’ own numbers, this will deliver at least 35,000 additional homes.
We’ll fund lower taxes by getting government spending – riddled with waste and rorts under Labor – back under control.
This will begin with four areas:
Ending Labor’s corporate welfare – like the National Reconstruction Fund and billions to green energy projects that do not stack up.
Ending Labor’s climate bureaucracy – like the EV tax rebate, the Net Zero Authority, and Rewiring the Nation Fund.
Ending Labor’s housing bureaucracy – which is failing to build the homes we need, and handing tens of millions to big builders, not first homeowners.
And securing our safety net for Australians – by reserving future access to our welfare and NDIS to Australian citizens only.
We will also cap immigration to below the level of houses built.
We recognise the simple, inescapable fact that you can’t bring people into this country if there’s nowhere for them to live.
It’s no good for them and it’s no good for us.
This means that we would close Labor’s housing shortage of around 400,000 people and growing within three years.
Immigration is the most powerful lever available to the federal government to solve our housing crisis.
And it’s the lever that Labor will never ever pull.
Which is why they will never solve our housing crisis.
We will also fund $5 billion worth of new housing infrastructure.
And we will tear up the National Construction Code.
We know that the only way we will ever build the houses we need is to empower private enterprise.
And the National Construction Code isn’t the only regulation we’d slash.
We’ll also impose new responsibilities on Australia’s regulators by law.
Our big regulators – such as ASIC – will be obliged to act in a way that encourages competition, nurtures investment, increases productivity, boosts wages, and drives job creation.
Rather than regulating for regulation’s sake, as they do today.
And just as we won’t let the regulators call the shots, nor will we let the militant union officials call the shots.
And, finally, we will scrap net zero.
Labor’s ideological energy policy, which puts emissions first and energy costs last, will go.
We will get rid of Labor’s crippling carbon taxes wherever we find them.
Carbon taxes are making us less competitive and driving up costs.
That includes taxes on manufacturing though the so-called safeguard mechanism.
Taxes on vehicles though the vehicle emissions standard.
And taxes on electricity users through the Capacity Investment Scheme.
To lower power bills and bring down the cost of living, the Coalition will focus on delivering affordable and abundant energy.
We will back any technology that can deliver abundant and affordable energy:
Coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro, batteries, and renewables in the right places, like rooftop solar.
And we will turbocharge digging and drilling to get more Australian gas and oil out of the ground for Australians.
And this is just the beginning.
We’ll have a lot more to say between now and the next election.
Lower taxes, lower immigration, lower regulation, and lower energy costs.
This is our plan.
To restore self-determination and enterprise.
To re-empower Australians.
Because we have everything here in our great country for Australians to strive and succeed – for our nation to surge ahead again.
We just need government to get out of their way.
CONCLUSION
Ladies and gentlemen:
In Australia today, the Coalition is the only party with a strong plan and a strong team to address the root cause of our collapsing living standards:
Labor’s big government Leviathan.
The Coalition will restore self-determination and enterprise as the drivers of growth.
We will put faith back in Australians.
We will put power back in the hands of Australians – in enterprising people, small businesses, and organisations.
Our nation is at its best and our economy at its most prosperous when everyday Australians aspire and are empowered to be their best.
Everyday men and women who make things, build things, fix things, create things – who contribute knowledge, care for others, and serve the greater good.
Only the Coalition believes this.
Because only the Coalition has lived it.
This is how we will protect our way of life and restore our standard of living.
Thank you.
